The Math behind Guild Wars [Pt.1]

Hello,

Guild Wars is upon DH5 and with a complex setup of war points, battle frenzy and battle quests, the question that pops up in everyone’s head (or at least in mine), would be whether the battle frenzy is actually worthwhile getting.

Hence, I bring to you a series of posts that explore the math behind Guild wars and hopefully make some sense amidst the seemingly chaotic guild vs guild scenarios.

The posts will be structured as such:

Part 1: The Basic Math and Deriving a Strategy [you’re here now!]
Part 2: Making sense of Battle Frenzy
Part 3: Guild War Calculator

P.S.: Yes, I’m procrastinating on the second post of the combat formula.  

Before I commence, here’s your obligatory disclaimer notice that comes attached to all Guild war posts.


Disclaimer

Due to the varied number of opponents faced, number of active players per war, level of coordination and differing win rates for each guild faced, it is near impossible to come up with an ‘universal‘ strategy that is applicable to every scenario.

Hence, in order to develop an optimal Guild wars strategy, it is first necessary to set some assumptions in order to make certain variables constant…which however, is recognised to be problematic as by doing so would make the math questionable.

To make the math less questionable, I’ll apply this strategy later to different scenarios (eg. different number of players/opponents, different win rates etc.) and see how the math adds up. Of course, do feel free to criticise these posts, along with the assumptions and the formulas that I’ve used.

IMG_1281
With the amount of layers within Guild wars, it isn’t difficult to get lost within its complexity.

The strategy, itself, is to discover the highest number of war points that a guild can gain without resorting to paying. It will craft a sequence of events based on the assumptions stated and hopefully it makes sense to you as a reader.

As observed in any scenario, paying will essentially flaw every single calculation as I have no chance of ever knowing how much players have in their bank account and the willingness they possess to spend. Hence, this will be restricted to an entirely non pay-to-win post.

Due to the length of each post and avoid boring readers, the post will be split up into 3 different segments*:

Part 1 will explain the math and the strategy with its attached assumptions that make it work.

Part 2 will compare this strategy with different variables (as per above) and see whether with or without battle frenzy makes sense.

Part 3 will share the calculator of this strategy (another excel sheet) and explain how it works.

*Don’t worry, unlike the combat 2.0 series, these will be churned out fairly fast as I’ve already done the calculations and developed the content for each post. So you can expect everything to be out before the next Guild War event.


Motivation

The motivation for these posts stems from my initial hypothesis about armory raids and battle frenzy. I had the prediction that running Armory raids or attaining Battle Frenzies are not worthwhile at all.

However, when I did some calculations, the numbers do prove otherwise (but not for all scenarios that I’ll cover in Part 2). What I can share (as a teaser to that post) is that battle frenzy is worth when you have a larger number of strong players involved on both sides and have a decent win rate. As to the exact number of players and the win percentage, that would be for the next chapter ;p.

TL;DR: With Battle Frenzy or without? That is the question.


Prerequisites & Assumptions

As mentioned in the disclaimer, there are a number of assumptions to be made and prerequisites to be possessed in order to develop an optimal non-paying strategy to get the most number of war points:

Prerequisites

  • Necessary to have all 30 guild members
  • All 30 guild members must be participating
  • Everyone starts with the maximum of 3 morale
  • All players must be strong enough to take down at least one opponent

Assumptions

  • No one uses gems
  • Each armory raid rewards an average of 7 war points
  • Each successful raid rewards an average of 10 war points as base
  • Each guild battle takes approximately 4 mins long (+ loading time)
  • Well-coordinated: Everyone wins within the time frame of battle frenzy
  • The opposing guild has 30 players
  • 100% win rate

You can start to see that some of these assumptions might be entirely non-attainable or exceptionally difficult to implement (especially the last 3) due to varying conditions for each guild war. This is even more evident when a guild might be matched against another stupendously overpowered guild through the current match-making mechanics.

Nonetheless, do note that this is a ‘best case scenario and it is always necessary to assess the situation after the first round of (blindfolded) battles and tweak your strategy accordingly.

TL;DR: Calculations involve 30 vs 30 with no gem usage and 100% win rate. But more importantly, remember that this is the best case scenario and by no means, to be considered as a ‘universal’ strategy.


The Value of a Morale

To start, it is first essential to know the value of each morale in terms of war points (aka the basics of the Wars). If you’re not a fan of introductions or if you’ve been well-accustomed since the last War, you can skip straight to the strategy.

Every player starts with a total of 3 morale and each recovers at a rate of 1 morale for every 25 minutes. Hence, during the course of a guild war (1 hour), a player has a total of 5 morale if he/she were to be engaged at the start of a battle (or at least within 5 minutes of the start of the battle).

When a player is involved in an armory raid or a stronghold raid, he/she will gain war points as follows (in increasing order):

  • Unsuccessful Raid: 0
  • Armory Raid: 7
  • Successful Raid (w/o star): 10
  • Successful Raid (w/o star & frenzy): 30
  • Successful Raid (w star): 30
  • Successful Raid (w star & frenzy): 50

From this, one can see that the highest amount of war points attainable per morale would be 50, but at the cost of an average of 12 other morales (to achieve battle frenzy).

IMG_1292
Battle Frenzy takes an average of 12 attempts of armory raid to fill up, thus, one might ponder whether it’s worth doing in the first place.

Extending the duration of the battle frenzy also comes at the price of one morale per minute, which is essentially also at the cost of a potential successful raid with bonus points.

A recommendation would be that these extensions should only be done by players who have no chance of scoring a successful hit, because having everyone fight within the frenzy grants the potential of winning 50 points each raid.

While this is undoubtedly worth the trade-off if those 12 morales (4 players worth of their morale capacity) aren’t able to successfully defeat any opposing players, a question to ponder upon would be whether Frenzy is still worth if those 12 morales are able to defeat opposing players? Especially so if you can attain the battle quest rewards (an additional 500 for hitting all opponents and 1000 for clearing all stars war points) with more certainty and at a faster rate.

The answer (which surprised me) is Yes.

But, this answer takes into account that the guild is well-coordinated and is able to score successful raids upon the opponent.

TL;DR: Is it fair to trade 12 morales for +20 war pts per raid?


The Strategy

After trying out various iterations and their corresponding calculations (on a rudimentary war point calculator), I’ve developed a proposal strategy of how a guild is able to obtain the highest amount of war points within the set duration of an hour.

A sequence of events will be drafted out based on the regeneration rate of morale, indicating actions to be performed at 0 mins (start), ~25 mins (mid-battle) and ~50 mins (end battle) marks, and will tabulate the final war point score. The formula and strategy takes into account the above prerequisites and assumptions listed above.

IMG_1291
The War Log option is great to keep track of your progress…and also a record of your future foes when you’re fighting in regular stronghold raids.

Subsequently, this score will be compared to the score gained when fighting without battle frenzy to see how both add up.

*I used the terms ‘weak’ and ‘strong’ as these terms are subjective, especially when it comes to facing off opponents of different levels. This is even more evident with the new combat system which is element-oriented.

A hypothetical example would be that if I’m a light user and all of the opponents are predominantly dark users with dark minions (eg. vorors, etheras, acolytes etc.). In this scenario, if everyone else has different elemental armors, I can be considered ‘weak’ despite having the same base armor value as everyone else. But this would be entirely up to the officers/leader to decide.

[30 vs 30 player scenario]

Start of Battle (0 mins)

(1) 4 ‘weak‘ players raid armory 3 times each to attain battle frenzy

(2) Rest of the players standby for approximately 4 mins (1 min per raid + loading times) till battle frenzy is obtained

(3) When battle frenzy is active (10 mins duration), 26 ‘strong‘ players attack twice each, making sure that each opponent is defeated once (1 star each) first before moving on to remove the second star. This should finish the first battle quest.
[Each of these players have 1 morale remaining.]

Est. Duration: 14 mins
First Battle Quest accomplished
War points score for this period: 3,184
Remaining stars: 38

Mid-Battle (29 mins)

(4) 4 ‘weak‘ + 8 ‘strong’ players raid armory 1 time each to attain battle frenzy

(5) Rest of the players standby for approximately 1 min till battle frenzy is obtained

(6) When battle frenzy is active (10 mins duration), 18 ‘strong‘ players attack twice each and the remaining 8 ‘strong’ players attack once each immediately after their armory raid.

Est. Duration: 10 mins
War points score for this period: 2,284
Remaining stars: 4

End-Battle (50-55 mins)

(7) Once their final morale has regenerated, all players attack the opposing side 1 time to remove the rest of the stars. Be warned though, the system won’t allow you to attack approximately less than 5 minutes before the end of the guild war due to the lack of time.

Est. Duration: 4 mins
Second Battle Quest accomplished
War points score for this period: 1,380
Remaining stars: 0

Grand total score: 6,848 war points

Optimal-1

TL;DR: Armory -> Frenzy -> Raid -> …and repeat


Discussion & Comparison

Well, it’s easy to see how tight the battle frenzy strategy plays out (with only achieving the second battle quest at the last few minutes of the war) and there are foreseeable problems in this:

(A) All players would require a robust device and an excellent wi-fi connection that negates the possibility of crashing, especially during the battle frenzy period.

(B) It’s also necessary to have a 100% win rate, which is another challenge if your guild isn’t fully leveled and well geared.

(C) Another criticism is the 4 weaker players will eventually have to be involved in the final few battles, which might be a stretch if the rest of the opposing guild are a strong bunch to deal with.

While I don’t have a guaranteed solution for points (A) and (B), issue (C) can take an alternative route.

These 4 ‘weak‘ players can made to perform armory raids instead, resulting in a guaranteed 7 war points on the average per player instead of having them to battle the other side and potentially lose. And this isn’t very much different from the 10 war points for a successful win (without stars).

Moreover, do note that this is based upon a ‘best case scenario’ (from the assumptions above) to obtain the largest amount of war points within the system’s capability (and without cash).

Interestingly, if you were to make a comparison between this and the non-battle frenzy attempt, one can observe that the first strategy wins flat out with an additional 2,048 point difference.

Optimal-2

Thus, it is safe to say that even if they don’t achieve the final battle quest, the total number of war points still prevails the final score of the guild that doesn’t engage in any armory raids.

TL;DR: There are foreseeable problems in the strategy, but in this scenario, it excels over the guild that is not empowered by battle frenzy.


Conclusions

From this post, we can start to see the benefits of armory raids and battle frenzies but only if implemented with a well-coordinated guild attack where each player knows who to attack to prevent cross-fire from taking place.

However, there are several variables which have not been addressed yet like win rate and number of players on other side. All of which will be covered in the next post.

Additionally, it is imperative that every guild should modify their strategy according to how the battle goes and based on the numbers they have (yes, I’ve repeated myself thrice already). 🙂

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Enjoy your rewards!

Also note that the developers have mentioned that they might adjust the battle frenzy system if they feel that the system isn’t worthwhile (see here). When it comes to that time, I’ll have to modify my posts accordingly.


That’s about all for now. Expect the next post to appear sometimes tomorrow or later in the evening (depending on where you live). 🙂

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6 thoughts on “The Math behind Guild Wars [Pt.1]

  1. We have tried to reactivate frenzy in mid battle on at least two occasions. Both times we were unable to get it going again. It stopped at 119/120 battle chests everytime. Making that strategy impossible.

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  2. I’ve seen higher numbers than posted here. It’s a base algorithm. Hers a scenario not accounted for. The frenzy loading folks run 1 long frenzy, and remaining members put 3 morale into the frenzied attack each. Then their 2 remain (recharge morale) will later go to the last 12-16 stars that weren’t touched due to frenzy team using their morale to activate. 1500 bonus points are acquired due to clearing all stars and deatroying all enemies. The outcome is an 8500 + point war battle

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    1. Hi Brian, thanks for your suggested strategy.

      However, do note that the posted strategy above is specifically taking into account that no member uses gems in recharging their morale. The input of gems and morale recharging into the equation would flaw the maximum achievable limit as the final score would be dependent on how quickly players finish each raid and how deep their pockets go. For example, the less time I take to complete a raid and the more gems I spend on recharging would ultimately result in a much higher number of war points at the end of the hour.

      On my server, I’ve seen 20-30k war pts per war for the wealthier China-based guilds, which is in my opinion, quite ridiculous an expenditure on a virtual product.

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